A credible poll is cutting into the narrative that President Donald Trump’s demise in 2020 is inevitable.
Pundits, pollsters, and other “experts” are predicting that the next presidential election will be a cakewalk for former VP Joe Biden. Others, however, aren’t so sure.
Stony Brook Professor Helmut Norpoth created a model years ago that has accurately predicted the results of five out of the last six elections. He says his model, which eschews public opinion polls in favor of other, more accurate sources of information, makes it clear President Trump is likely to win re-election this year.
The model puts a premium on the early nominating process, noting how much enthusiasm a candidate generates right from the beginning. It predicted a Trump win in 2016 based on the fact that the President was able to enthuse voters with his unconventional speaking style and ideas, while former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton struggled to entice even mainstream Democrat voters. During that primary cycle, progressive passion died when Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders bowed out.
Now in 2020, it seems like history is repeating itself. Biden lost primaries in early states by a large margin, only gaining traction after nearly all the other candidates dropped out at the same time and endorsed him. Even so, as far-left activist Michael Moore notes, no one really cares about Biden — even as the former VP appropriates the Sanders agenda.
While President Trump’s supporters eagerly stand in line for hours on end just to hear him speak in person, Biden’s voters prefer to stay at home and listen to their candidate attempt to speak from his basement. It’s not a good sign for the Democrats, especially in toss-up states where voter turn-out is likely to make or break a candidate’s campaign.
Professor Norpoth’s model indicates that President Trump will win even more electoral votes this year than he did in 2016. While mainstream news media outlets are saying that Biden will win the Electoral College with 279 electoral votes, Norpoth says that President Trump will win a decisive victory with 362 votes.
The difference of nearly one hundred votes may be hard to fathom, but one should bear in mind that the same mainstream news media outlet that is proclaiming a Biden win also said that Hillary Clinton would win in 2016 with 280 electoral votes. In reality, she lost with a mere 227 votes, leaving news outlets and pundits scratching their heads.
Granted, Norpoth’s model does not guarantee that President Trump will win re-election in 2020. The impact of current and future COVID-19 lockdown on the economy will play a huge role. Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in the coming months will also be carefully scrutinized by potential voters. Even so, models and polls predicting a Biden win should be taken with a grain of salt. The mainstream media got it dead wrong in 2016 and, instead of learning from its mistakes, has doubled down on biased reporting.
