Sen. Warren’s campaign has crashed and burned. There is no other way to honestly assess her third-place finish in Iowa and dismal fourth-place showing in New Hampshire.
The polls don’t give her any hope of redemption in either Nevada or South Carolina. She is trailing both Sen. Sanders and former VP Joe Biden in Nevada with a projected 11% support rate. In South Carolina, it’s even worse as she is polling in sixth place, behind not just Sanders and Biden but also Tom Steyer, Mike Bloomberg, and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
It’s hard to imagine the Massachusetts senator winning a single primary contest. Even one of her prominent supporters has made it clear that Sen. Warren “is done”, pointing out the obvious fact that she doesn’t have a target demographic to appeal to. The far-left is rallying around Sen. Sanders while centrist Democrats looking for a female Democrat candidate already have one in Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who at least managed to win a decent third place in the New Hampshire primary.
Not surprisingly, Sen. Warren is refusing to believe what everyone else can see as reality. She recently told a news outlet that she doesn’t “frame it that way” when asked about when she expects her first primary wins. Instead, she and her team of dedicated supporters and campaign staff members are insisting that Sen. Warren has “the highest potential ceiling of support” even as they point out that it’s a long contest.
Granted, no-one can know for sure what’s going to happen in the next month or two. However, it’s clear that support is coalescing around certain people while being eroded from others. Former VP Joe Biden, who was once almost certain to win the Democrat nomination, is now trailing in the polls. On the other hand, Mike Bloomberg, Mayor Pete, and Sen. Sanders are all steadily gaining support. It’s clear that people are making their decisions and these decisions aren’t going to favor Sen. Warren going forward.
While Sen. Warren insists that she can win, many are starting to realize that it’s not going to happen. Others are bringing out the old, tired “she’s held to an unfair standard because she’s a woman” excuse. That same line was heard when Hillary Clinton lost in 2016, and when Sen. Kamala Harris dropped out of the Democrat primary last year.
The truth is that Sen. Warren’s insistence on pushing big government mandates that would put millions out of work, coupled with her continual dishonesty about her racial background and her Medicare for All plan, have cost her votes.
As potential voters realize that she’s on a downward spiral, they will almost certainly find other candidates to support. The Nevada caucus may be her last chance to show signs of life.