The next presidential election is still over a year away, but campaigning has already begun, and one pollster is already predicting a smooth path to reelection for President Trump in 2020.
According to Breitbart News, pollster John McLaughlin already has positive things to say about Donald Trump’s chances of reelection. Speaking on the “Cats Roundtable” radio program (New York AM 970), McLaughlin stated that he felt strongly that President Trump is “on his way to reelection” based on recent poll results. His statement differs from some other early 2020 polls. He says this is because many progressives do not interpret poll results properly. Pointing to the polls leading up to Trump’s 2016 surprise victory, McLaughlin stated that current pollsters simply don’t understand Trump voters.
Host John Catsimatidis asked McLaughlin about President Trump’s chances for reelection as the field of Democratic contenders continues to grow. McLaughlin stated his confidence in the President’s chances for reelection, and cited the poor quality of polls and the way they are interpreted. According to McLaughlin, campaigns just are not correctly targeting conservative voters, and do not understand why this huge voting base is unwilling to talk to the media.
“The polls, when they’re not done well, and they’re done as cheaply and inefficiently as they were done back in 2016, they’re going to be wrong again,” McLaughlin predicted. “They’re doubling down on poor science at the time. And they don’t know how to analyze these Trump voters because they don’t like talking to the media because they know the media is like 90% negative coverage of their president.”
Lack of trust in the mainstream media and an unwillingness to be targeted may have been behind the unpredictable and surprise results of the last election. Far more people turned out and voted for President Trump than had ever indicated they would in polls. Mainstream media talking heads, anxious for negative Trump news (and pro-Hilary Clinton polls) went overboard stating that the election was already won — and that we would have our first female president. Some magazines and publications went so far as to produce print editions with “Madame President” on the cover. Interns and election team staffers were so shocked and upset they acted out and had tantrums on television.
These over the top reactions were likely in part to the lack of understanding of conservative voters, as McLaughlin pointed out. For those hoping for a Clinton victory, polls seemed to indicate that the odds were increasingly in their favor. The massive underestimating of the conservative base led to the huge upset. If McLaughlin is right, then history could be repeating itself already, as early polls favor any Democrat, from handsy Biden to Socialist Bernie over the sitting President.
As the election draws closer, we will see if McLaughlin’s predictions hold true and if Donald Trump is elected to a second term, powered by a base that simply no longer trusts pollsters or the mainstream media.